07Russia / Europe / United States · System risk, fiscal policy, banking, energy, sanctions and elite power
Russia’s war economy is adapting under pressure, not approaching systemic break.
The federal-deficit forecast is 3.2% of GDP, the policy rate 14%, Fed dollar swaps $0.205 billion and U.S. high-yield 329 bp—all below frozen triggers.
Russian diesel exports average 345,000 barrels a day this year, down 41%, but cargoes are returning to Turkey and Brazil after sanctions relief; October oil-and-gas taxes are estimated near $12 billion while January–October receipts remain 14% lower year on year.
InterpretationThis is fiscal deterioration, crowding-out, financial repression and sector bottlenecks, cushioned by oil prices and trade adaptation—not a sovereign or banking break. Bank capital and national refinery throughput remain delayed; inflation and liquid NWF evidence are stale, diesel exports are not crude production or throughput, and tactical Kremlin satisfaction is not an elite rupture.