07Russia · System risk
Russia remains under managed strain, not at systemic break
Facts
Refinery throughput is estimated near 5.0 mb/d; the policy rate is 14%, banking capital 13.7%, the realized January–September federal deficit 2.2% of GDP and liquid National Wealth Fund assets about $45.0 billion. A gas-tax surcharge rose from 2% to 5%, a diesel-export ban runs through January, and current monthly CPI remains release-lagged under the frozen rule.
InterpretationFiscal deterioration, high real financing costs, tax extraction and product controls crowd out civilian investment and deepen financial repression. Yet the frozen throughput, capital, rate, deficit and NWF breakpoints are not crossed, and no verified elite rupture is visible: this is stagnation and sector bottlenecks, not a true systemic break.
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