08Russia · System risk
Russia’s buffers are thinner, but the system is not breaking
Facts
Russia’s national crude refinery throughput was estimated near 5.0 mb/d in the second half of October; the policy rate is 14%, banking capital adequacy 13.7%, the January–September deficit 2.2% of GDP and liquid National Wealth Fund assets about $45 billion. The monthly CPI reading is release-lagged under the frozen rule.
InterpretationThis is managed stress: high rates crowd out civilian investment, taxes shift war costs to firms and households, and liquid buffers have narrowed. Yet refinery throughput and bank capital are above their breakpoints and the deficit remains below 4%; neither fiscal deterioration nor sector bottlenecks currently satisfies all four systemic gates.
Reuters · Russian oil refineries boost output as drone attacks halt after US-brokered deal · 27 October 2026 · Bank of Russia · Bank of Russia keeps the key rate at 14.00% p.a. · 23 October 2026 · Bank of Russia · Macroprudential policy decisions · 28 October 2026 · Interfax · Russia's budget deficit at 5.186 trln rubles or 2.2% of GDP in 9M 2026 · 9 October 2026 · Kommersant · National Wealth Fund fell to 12.985 trillion rubles in September · 7 October 2026 · Associated Press · Putin reaches into more pockets as war strains budget · 29 October 2026 · Rosstat · Consumer price index in September 2026 · 9 October 2026