08Russia · System risk
Russia’s war economy is constrained, not systemically broken
Facts
Russia’s national crude refinery throughput was estimated near 5.0 mb/d in the second half of October; oil freight to India rose to about $30 a barrel from roughly $20 in September. The policy rate is 14%, bank capital 13.7%, the January–September deficit 2.2% of GDP and liquid National Wealth Fund assets about $45.0 billion; monthly CPI is release-lagged under the frozen rule.
InterpretationHigh rates and more expensive logistics crowd out civilian activity, while sanctions shift rents to shipping and intermediaries. Yet throughput, bank capital and the deficit remain on the safe side of frozen breakpoints; the evidence supports fiscal deterioration and sector bottlenecks, not all four gates of a systemic break.
Reuters · Russian oil refineries boost output as drone attacks halt after US-brokered deal · 27 October 2026 · Reuters · Freight rates for Russian oil stay at record highs amid tanker shortage · 30 October 2026 · Bank of Russia · Bank of Russia keeps the key rate at 14.00% p.a. · 23 October 2026 · Bank of Russia · Macroprudential policy decisions · 28 October 2026 · Interfax · Russia's budget deficit at 5.186 trillion rubles or 2.2% of GDP · 9 October 2026 · Interfax · Liquid National Wealth Fund assets at 1.6% of GDP · 7 October 2026 · Bank of Russia · Inflation in Russia, September 2026 · 9 October 2026