08Russia · System risk
Russia remains under managed stress, not systemic break
Russia’s policy rate is 14%, its January–September federal deficit is 2.2% of GDP and liquid National Wealth Fund assets are about $45 billion; diesel output reportedly recovered toward 180,000 tonnes a day after export quotas, but current bank capital, monthly CPI and national crude refinery throughput were not verified.
InterpretationThe system still has fiscal buffers, energy income and administrative control, yet high rates crowd out private investment and the revised full-year deficit forecast shows deterioration. Diesel product output is not crude throughput or crude production. Delayed banking evidence and unavailable market measures block any mechanical systemic-break call; the next hard banking test is the December Financial Stability Review.